Matchup Summary (Win Condition and Game Plan)
This matchup gets rough for Mario if he keeps trying to leap over Duck Hunt’s can, gunman, and clay layers on one read, because that often runs him into preemptive fair, bair, or exploding can.
The win condition is not to skip neutral entirely, but to use Fireball to disrupt both the can path and Duck Hunt’s grounded drift, then cash in hard once Mario gets close with nair, down throw, up tilt strings, and up smash.
The frame table also shows that jab, tilts, dash attack, smashes, bair, uair, and dair are all punishable on shield by Mario’s up B, nair, uair, bair, up smash, and grab, while shallow nair and fair are much safer, so shielding is only good if you still track where the can will be next.
For kills, Mario does better by carrying Duck Hunt to the ledge and forcing up smash, bair, fair meteor, FLUDD, or Cape decisions than by fishing for a raw center-stage fair.
Full Move Frame Quick Reference
| Opponent Move | Startup | On Shield | Mario OOS Candidate Moves | Barely Missed Moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jab 1 | 4 | -18 |
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| Jab 2 | 5 | -19 |
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| Jab 3 | 6 | -21 |
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| Rapid Jab | 5/7/9/… | — | ||
| Rapid Jab Finisher | 5 | -36 |
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| Forward Tilt | 8 | -15 |
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| Up Tilt | 7 | -13 |
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| Down Tilt | 6 | -13 |
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| Dash Attack | 10 | -23 |
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| Forward Smash | 17/23/29 | -30 |
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| Up Smash | 12/20/28 | -22 |
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| Down Smash | 12/20/28 | -24 |
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| Neutral Air | 6 | -5/-7 |
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| Forward Air | 7 | -5/-6/-6 |
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| Back Air | 7 | -9/-10 |
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| Up Air | 6/12/20 | -9/-8 |
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| Down Air | 14/20 | -12/-11 |
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| Neutral B | 1 / 16 / 1—2 | — | ||
| Side B | 17 | — | ||
| Up B | — | — | ||
| Down B | — | — | ||
| Grab | 6 | — | ||
| Dash Grab | 9 | — | ||
| Pivot Grab | 10 | — |
Win Condition Checklist
- Place Fireball between Duck Hunt and the can so they have to manage both projectile control and your approach timing.
- Once you get in, keep the turn with nair, down throw, up tilt, and up air against Duck Hunt’s weaker close-range defense.
- Punish jab, tilts, dash attack, smashes, bair, uair, and dair on shield with the listed up B, nair, uair, bair, up smash, and grab answers.
- Do not force shield punishes on shallow nair or fair; track the landing and the returning can instead.
- At the ledge, mix Cape and FLUDD into your normal trapping so Duck Hunt cannot reset to full projectile space for free.
Actions to Avoid
- Full-hop over the can without checking for gunman or pre-positioned anti-airs.
- Tunnel on raw fair kills after getting in and give Duck Hunt easy whiff punishes or resets.
- Swing out of shield at every nair or fair even when the shallow version is still safe.
- Chase only Duck Hunt’s body at the ledge and ignore can reactivation or jump escapes.
- Sit too far away while ahead and let Duck Hunt rebuild the full projectile layer unpressured.