Matchup Summary (Win Condition and Game Plan)
If Wario fights this matchup directly on the ground, Lucina’s walk speed plus Forward Air, Neutral Air, and Down Tilt make the sword wall very hard to break cleanly. The matchup changes when Wario uses his superior air drift to alter landings and force one swing to miss before committing. He should enter from low jumps and drifting air movement, not from repeated straight dashes into sword range.
The full table shows that Jab 1, Jab 2, Forward Tilt, Up Tilt, Down Tilt, Dash Attack, all smashes, Forward Air, Down Air, Neutral B, and Side B are all clear punish points for Up B (6f), OOS Nair (7f), or OOS Fair (8f). On the other hand, Neutral Air, Back Air, and Up Air are mostly safe enough that trying to shield-punish every aerial only gives Lucina the stage she wants. Wario gets more by making those aerials miss and then chasing the landing.
The win condition is touching once with Nair, Fair, or a rising aerial intercept, then never letting the landing trap or ledge pressure end. Lucina’s edgeguarding is strong, but she still lacks a projectile and her horizontal recovery is not especially long, so once Wario starts forcing ledge situations, Bair, bike pressure, and repeated offstage checks become meaningful. As Waft builds, Lucina also loses freedom to keep walking forward at midrange.
The trap is turning Waft into an excuse to stop playing. If Wario only waits for it, Lucina can simply walk him to the corner and begin her own ledge and edgeguard cycle first. Waft should make the normal air-drift neutral more threatening, not replace it.
Full Move Frame Quick Reference
| Opponent Move | Startup | On Shield | Wario OOS Candidate Moves | Barely Missed Moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jab 1 | 5 | -16 |
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| Jab 2 | 4 | -19 |
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| Forward Tilt | 8 | -15 |
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| Up Tilt | 6 | -19 |
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| Down Tilt | 7 | -8 |
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| Dash Attack | 13 | -21 |
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| Forward Smash | 10 | -31 |
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| Up Smash | 13 | -41/-35 |
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| Down Smash | 6/21 | -42/-24 |
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| Neutral Air | 6/15 | -4/-3 |
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| Forward Air | 6 | -6 |
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| Back Air | 7 | -5 |
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| Up Air | 5 | -3 |
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| Down Air | 9/11 | -9/-9 |
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| Neutral B | 19—79 | -23 to Shieldbreak |
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| Side B | 9 | -26/-16 |
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| Up B | 5 | — | ||
| Down B | 6 (Start of Counter) | — | ||
| Grab | 6 | — | ||
| Dash Grab | 9 | — | ||
| Pivot Grab | 10 | — |
Win Condition Checklist
- Do not extend grounded footsies forever. Use low jumps and lateral air drift to make Lucina whiff Forward Air, Neutral Air, or Down Tilt once before you commit.
- When you block Jab 1, Jab 2, Forward Tilt, Up Tilt, Down Tilt, Dash Attack, any smash, Forward Air, Down Air, Neutral B, or Side B, punish with Up B (6f) first and confirm whether OOS Nair, OOS Fair, or Grab is better.
- Do not force shield punishes on Neutral Air, Back Air, or Up Air. Cover the pullback and landing instead with Uair or Bair.
- Once you take stage, keep the ledge sequence going and use Bair, bike pressure, and air drift to repeatedly challenge Lucina’s shorter horizontal recovery.
- As Waft builds, use the added threat to make your normal whiff punishes and landing traps stronger rather than backing off into pure waiting.
Actions to Avoid
- Running straight into Lucina’s sword range on the ground and letting her walk-speed spacing dictate every exchange.
- Dropping punishable spots like Down Tilt, Dash Attack, Forward Air, Down Air, Side B, or the smash attacks and giving her sword swings no real cost.
- Mashing after every blocked Neutral Air, Back Air, or Up Air and donating stage control in exchanges where the punish is not actually there.
- Retreating only to wait for Waft and allowing Lucina to push you to ledge and start her stronger edgeguard game first.